OpenOffice downloads 2

OpenOffice charts the download numbers here.

Currently that is suggesting over 5 million downloads in the last 30 days, and seems to be improving. I think the chart means 1.2 million per week. Interesting but not startling on its own.

Back in May (5 months ago) I reported from the same page, and downloads were running at 2.7 million a month.

WOW! – an increase of 100% in the space of 5 months?

OO download estimates May 08 - May 09

OOo download estimates/projections May 08 - May 09

(Apologies for the crappy chart May 08 and Oct 08 numbers are actuals, everything else is estimates)

If they keep that quantity of increase (0.5 million additional per month – orange bars) then in Apr 09 downloads will be 9 million, and in the 12 months then ending there will have been 70 odd million downloads. (12 months later on the same linear trend = 220 million in the 24 months).

If they keep that rate of growth (16% month on month – purple bars) then in Apr 09 downloads will be 13.4 million and in the 12 months there will have been almost 82 million downloads. (12 months later on the same rate there will have been 550 million downloads in the 24 months!)

[Or did I do something dumb in my ‘analysis’?] [Or is Oct 08 an anomaly? – time will tell]

Of course this is just downloads, no mention of freebies on magazine covers, or non OOo downloads (eg OxygenOffice etc) or the version thats on every Linux net book, Or the Google pack which includes Star Office. etc etc

MS were estimating the office productivity suite market to be in the region of 500 million, or that may just be MS Office licences. Either way OOo is/will be over 10% and heading for 20%.

Now we can argue forever (and I’m sure some of us will ;-)) about skews, freetards and whatever, but this looks to me like a significant trend that us office dev types should be following closely. I certainly will be, what about you?

Anyone care to hazard a guess at O2007 marketshare?



5 Responses to “OpenOffice downloads 2”

  1. Dennis Wallentin Says:

    No, I don’t speculate but apparently the public sector is moving to OO more and more in Sweden. So guess it’s just a matter of time before there exist a market to provide OO support.

    Kind regards,

  2. Ross Says:

    I dont know a bout all that, but yesterday I download the java runtime, and it asked if i wanted to install OOo! I bet that netbooks and java number are in there! and Linux ones too! Looks promising though!

  3. Biggus Dickus Says:

    Did you do the chart in Excel 2007 ? :-)


  4. Simon Says:

    OOo Calc

  5. Rob Bruce Says:

    Yup, Sun is now bundling OpenOffice with Java runtime patches, so some of the downloads will be inadvertent and others will be curiosity only.

    That said, my local authority (Powys) has a growing commitment to open source software. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it were to commit to a switch to OO in the near future.

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