Well its that time of year – I don’t know if I’ll get many more posts into 2008.
Here are some predictions I made for 2008 at the end of 2007 and what I consider the outcome:
- (90%) Office 14 beta (or alpha) released, probably full public beta (Wrong)
- (80%) Office 2007 will continue to flounder, MS will not accept the fluent interface is a factor in disappointing uptake.(Right)
- (70%) Vista and Office SP2s will be hurried out (sort of)
- (60%) Windows XP will get another extension (Right)
- (70%) Asus Eee will sell tons and lead a deluge of cheap Linux pcs from Asia (Right)
- (60%) Other mainstream PC makers will follow Dell and start to supply pcs with Linux installed – probably Ubuntu. (not really)
- (50%) Dell will make it possible to find their Ubuntu machines on their website (just barely)
- (90%) the OOXML and ODF file format ‘excitement’ will continue (I suppose so)
- (70%) new lease of life for C++ following VS2008 add-on due Q1 2008 (within MS and outside) (kind of)
- (100%) spreadsheets still won’t be sexy (too right – unless they are super sexy browser based of course)
And I said I’d do less Excel/VBA and more C/C++, and that is actually what I did/am doing.
Other big things that happened in 2008:
- All this cloud nonsense got blown hideously out of proportion in a full bubble 2.0esque style
- Netbooks happened, and seemed to have settled at 20-30% Linux.
- The iPhone happened and effectively made Apple equal Microsoft revenues
- The hot air/cloud/bubble based financial world got its comeuppance, leading the Bank of England to drop interest rates by the largest amount ever. To the lowest level since the last lowest level. To put this into perspective – the interest element of our mortgage repayments has dropped by over 30 % over the last 2 months
So by my reckoning I got it right about half the time, and only got a couple of things completely wrong. Not too shabby I reckon.
How did you get on compared to your expectations?
(2009 predictions coming in the next post)