2008 looking back

Well its that time of year – I don’t know if I’ll get many more posts into 2008.

Here are some predictions I made for 2008 at the end of 2007 and what I consider the outcome:

  1. (90%) Office 14 beta (or alpha) released, probably full public beta (Wrong)
  2. (80%) Office 2007 will continue to flounder, MS will not accept the fluent interface is a factor in disappointing uptake.(Right)
  3. (70%) Vista and Office SP2s will be hurried out (sort of)
  4. (60%) Windows XP will get another extension (Right)
  5. (70%) Asus Eee will sell tons and lead a deluge of cheap Linux pcs from Asia (Right)
  6. (60%) Other mainstream PC makers will follow Dell and start to supply pcs with Linux installed – probably Ubuntu. (not really)
  7. (50%) Dell will make it possible to find their Ubuntu machines on their website (just barely)
  8. (90%) the OOXML and ODF file format ‘excitement’ will continue (I suppose so)
  9. (70%) new lease of life for C++ following VS2008 add-on due Q1 2008 (within MS and outside) (kind of)
  10. (100%) spreadsheets still won’t be sexy (too right – unless they are super sexy browser based of course)

And I said I’d do less Excel/VBA and more C/C++, and that is actually what I did/am doing.

Other big things that happened in 2008:

  • All this cloud nonsense got blown hideously out of proportion in a full bubble 2.0esque style
  • Netbooks happened, and seemed to have settled at 20-30% Linux.
  • The iPhone happened and effectively made Apple equal Microsoft revenues
  • The hot air/cloud/bubble based financial world got its comeuppance, leading the Bank of England to drop interest rates by the largest amount ever. To the lowest level since the last lowest level. To put this into perspective – the interest element of our mortgage repayments has dropped by over 30 % over the last 2 months

So by my reckoning I got it right about half the time, and only got a couple of things completely wrong. Not too shabby I reckon.

How did you get on compared to your expectations?

(2009 predictions coming in the next post)

cheers

Simon

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3 Responses to “2008 looking back”

  1. Harlan Grove Says:

    I think your 1 and 2 are related. The MSFT people responsible for Office must be split between the die hard ribbon fanatics and the pig headed empirical sorts who can see there hasn’t been a tectonic shift towards ribbon-based versions. What this implies for the next Office version is that the former group want to force us to upgrade to the ribbon (for our own good, of course), while the latter group really would like to limit Linux, Mac and OpenOffice uptake and suspect that forcing ever more ribbon on potential MSFT softwaree buyers makes fewer actual MSFT software buyers. That’d by why Office 14 is still in-house – orthodoxy and statitics are yet to become aligned.

  2. Simon Says:

    Harlan, I’d love to believe you are right, and secretly this is what I hope is going on. But actually I have linked in the past to Win7 screenshots that show the whole thing to be completely infested with fat clumsy UI fail. They killed little old Paint ffs, and Wordpad.

    We’ll find out in Jan how Office sales are, but with their enterprise agreements I suspect they look OK (ish). Its deployments that aren’t happening, and thats choking the eco-system.

  3. Bob Phillips Says:

    I agree with you Simon, would love to believe that there are people in MS fighting for the integrity of Office over the superficial glitziness of the latest hype, but I don’t.

    I don’t believe that the implementation teams hold enough sway over the Office team, and even if they would normally be prepared to fight, with the rumours of 10% cuts and justifying your position at MS, I can’t imagine too many raisisng their heads.

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