2012 predictions

I think I hit about a 30% success rate with my 2011 predictions, but I don’t feel the minor issue of being mainly wrong should prevent me from continuing the tradition…

In no particular order:

  1. Google market cap will surpass MS this year
  2. Office 15 will be released ( I don’t see them waiting until 2014, and I’m pretty confident they will skip 2013)
  3. Office dev still wont get sexy
  4. Less jobs, higher rates – we are the new COBOL devs.
  5. Minimal new spreadsheet risk projects – due to the next recession starting
  6. Europe and UK will officially enter recession
  7. A few countries may well leave the Euro
  8. A decent non Apple tablet will appear, probably not running Windows.
  9. Oracle will buy what’s left of HP
  10. Microsoft will buy or bail out Nokia, but Windows phone will still be minuscule.
  11. Excel contract rates will pick up in Q2, probably briefly, but I think the trend will be generally upwards
  12. The Excel Developer conference (book here) will be an outstanding success and we will run a more user oriented one in July in Manchester
  13. RIM will disappear, Oracle should buy them, but maybe Google or IBM. (Or Apple??)
  14. Android, in some flavour or another will be everywhere
  15. Apple will have another good year in 2012, but may start to lose some shine towards the end of the year.
  16. I think Ballmer will go (and not willingly!)
  17. Apple is sitting on a cash mountain, I’d like to see them buy Adobe or something, but I suspect they are looking more at cloud services, and (TV?) content providers
  18. I may have to buy my own Kindle.¬† My Machiavellian plan to gift one to Mrs S that she would then not use, so I could ‘look after it’ appears to have failed – she hasn’t put it down yet!
  19. Many more Apple products are heading for the smurf residence in 2012
  20. I think there may be a new Visual Studio out – no idea about the VSTO story.
  21. Nikons next gen full frame DSLR will finally appear, which I will somehow have to justify buying.
  22. The world won’t end in 2012


That’s all I can think of for now. What do you think will be the big stories?

All the best for 2012



9 Responses to “2012 predictions”

  1. Bob Phillips Says:

    1. Who cares (apart from MS and Google)?
    2. I think so to, especially as Windows 8 is rumoured to beta in Feb.
    3. Was it ever?
    4. You wish!
    5. Don’t understand that one.
    6. You think?
    7. Disagree, total breakup or they will hang in together, Germany needs them as much as they need Germany.
    8. Agreed, but there will be a decent Android (that new Asus Prime?), AND a decent Windows tablet.
    9. Travesty – I guess the CEO will get a big bonus for successfully running the company into the ground.
    10. I think the Windows phone will be the surprise of the year.
    11. Again, you wish!
    12. It deserves to be!
    13. Again, you think?
    14. No brainer.
    15. I agree, Chapter 11 by 2017.
    16. Can’t see that, MS is one good move away from flying (even though they aren’t doing what I would want).
    17. Just where will they go, where is there to go?
    18. Touche. I’m going to have to buy another (did you get the 3G version?).
    19. You poor fool (says he who bought his first Mac last year, our 4th Apple product, if you ignore all the Apple stuff I bought in the early 80s).
    20. Interesting, seems no time since 2010.
    21. The cameras are cheap, its a decent lens that breaks the bank.
    22. Disagree!

  2. Simon Says:

    1. Well I find it amusing
    5. Lots of risk management projects were started in 2010/11, I don’t see that happening in 2012.
    7. Timeframe?
    10. I hope so, its just a 2 horse race at the mo, 3 would keep the pressure on.
    15. should we be worrying about warranties for all our iThings?
    16. One for the pub then…
    18. nope just the bog basic wifi one. 3G next.
    19. Love my Macbook Pro, want an Air, (and a new MBP). All kids want iPod touches (with appstore/iTunes credit of course).
    22. Pub…

    • Bob Phillips Says:

      5. What do you think is behind that?
      7. 2012. If they get through 2012, it will survive.
      15. No, they will be redundant by then anyway.
      16. Over a beer, sounds good to me.
      18. That’s what I will be getting, end Feb.
      22. It might happen before we get there!

  3. Ed Ferrero Says:

    21.Nikons next gen full frame DSLR will finally appear, which I will somehow have to justify buying.

    The Pentax 645D has been out for a while now…

    Not good enough for you? The Pentax forced Hasselblad to come up with this…

    (Only a little more expensive, and the sensor is not quite as good, but you do get Carl Zeiss glass)

  4. Simon Says:

    Hi Ed
    I’m not sure I am ready for the money pit that is medium format…yet.

    I would get a D3s, but I think something new will be out any minute which will be better and make the D3s cheaper.
    My criteria are low light capability, resolution and fps as I like shooting action sport (Nikon lens compatibility is a factor too). If I did mainly studio I would be tempted by a Hassy.

  5. Harlan Grove Says:

    You’re using 1 and 6 to boost your average.

    2 – but what will O15 look like? Will MSFT spend so much time making it touch screen-enabled that little or no non-UI improvements made?

    9 – Oracle buys HP for it’s server business? To combine Solaris and HP-UX code bases? Because Larry lusts after HP’s offices? I don’t see it.

    13 – Google buy RIM? I can see why they bought Motorola, but why would they bother with RIM? Would RIM handsets be more compelling running Android? IBM would seem to be the more likely candidate because the only compelling plus for RIM in enterprises is that it has a Lotus Notes client, and most of the US financial sector still runs on Notes rather than Outlook/Exchange.

    14 – as opposed to now?

    16 – depends on how many on the board are his buddies, and whether Gates wants him gone. What else could explain a CEO of a company with the highest market cap when he took over riding it down to 6th to 10th place and presiding over a decade of flat share price while still keeping his job? I’m not arguing that he shouldn’t go, but MSFT has a bad habit of not doing what it should and doing what it shouldn’t.

  6. Simon Says:

    21 in the bank

    1 & 6 some of us were never convinced we left recession.
    2 – I know absolutely nothing about O15
    9 – Professional services
    13 RIM is corporate, iOS is getting there, Android isn’t yet. Melding BES with google Apps would give them a real corp inroad they don’t have now.
    14 yeah, more
    16 agreed

  7. Harlan Grove Says:

    BES is for running MSFT Exchange or Lotus Notes/Domino. I really don’t think many organizations already using it would have any interest in Google Apps, which aren’t as good as Zoho or even Lotus Symphony often bundled with Notes. Anyway, BES hasn’t kept RIM from losing enterprise smartphone market share.

    Maybe RIM has patents Google could use to try to inoculate Android against MSFT patent infringement claims.

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